DOI: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.15293/1813-4718.2006.15
UDC: 
316.7(470+571)
Polyakov Sergej Danilovich
Доктор педагогических наук, Dr. Sci. (Pedag.), Prof. of the Department of Psychology, Ulyanovsk State Pedagogical University named after I.N. Ulyanov, sdpolyakov@mail.ru, Ulyanovsk

On the Basics of Scenarios for the Development of Social Education

Abstract: 
The article describes the experience of developing scenarios for the development of Russian social education. The concept of a forecast scenario is formulated; the difference between this forecasting method and the foresight method is shown; the technology of developing a predictive scenario for social phenomena is characterized, the foundations for scenarios of the development of social education are presented (background data, description of the object and subject of the stage, scenario parameters); examples of developed scenarios are presented; their assessments by experts; correction of scenarios taking into account the new social and educational situation in 2020. On the basis of the formulated scenario provisions, new research topics are proposed for the problems of social education, the relation of predictive scenarios to the really unfolding processes in the sphere of social education is indicated.
Keywords: 
social education, forecast scenario, foundations of scenarios, development
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